PHM Engine · Case 02 · UK · FMCG

PHM Engine · Live Demand Signal Transmission · Four signals simultaneously active

Signal environment: DXY 99.03 · IMF WEO April 2026

P[5] Inflation / Demand

4.4%

Global inflation · IMF WEO April 2026

▽ Safe

P[2] Currency / EM

99.03

DXY index · Approaching 105 EM stress

▲ Breached

P[2] EM Purch. Power

−28%

UAE · South Africa · Brazil

▲ Breached

P[1] Supply Chain

€1.41M

Avoidable media waste · Wrong diagnosis

▲ Breached

Outside-in Layer

Retailers

Tesco/Carrefour/Rewe promotion pressure

▲ Breached

CPL Diagnosis

Standard: Creative problem

Signal event

Q2 Revenue

€100.1M standard

€83.1M

Delta −€17M

Media Waste Risk

Not modelled

€1.41M

Avoidable with correct diagnosis

EM Growth Model

12% EM expansion

4–6% adjusted

CGO model understates

Preparation Window

6 weeks

Before Q2 scan data confirms

PHM Engine · Live compound read · April 2026

P[0] → Energy

TTF €47 × 8.4% intensity × €184M revenue

+€3.2M direct · Delta +€1.4M

P[3] → Logistics

$2,700/FEU Cape × 31% of annual volume

+€4.1M freight · Delta +€3.0M

P[4] → Steel lag

Brent $101 → 8-week lag → June arrival

+€4.8M arriving · Delta +€3.6M

P[6] → Covenant

Euribor repriced → floating debt cost rises

Headroom 0.6× → 0.1×

Outside-in → Trap

BMW/Stellantis mandates block pass-through

Full compound trapped in P&L

The Model · Four Layers

Click to expand each layer ↓

Company & Signal Environment

Company profile · Live signal values · PHM parameter activation · Threshold status

Open

▲

PHM situational read

A UK premium FMCG faces a 34% blended CPL increase across all channels simultaneously — paid search, social, programmatic, organic, email, OOH, and trade — without any change in channel mix. The agency has diagnosed creative fatigue. The budget review is three weeks away. PHM diagnoses a structural signal event. The DXY at 99, approaching the 105 EM stress threshold, is compressing real purchasing power in UAE, South Africa, and Brazil simultaneously. When purchasing power falls, brand preference erodes toward price — and CPL rises across every channel at once. The two diagnoses produce opposite responses. €1.41M in avoidable waste separates them.

Parameter	Source	Value	Signal status	Intensity
Company Profile
Annual Revenue	FY2025 Report	€184M	Baseline
Energy % of COGS	COGS breakdown	8.4%	P[0] Critical	↑↑ High
Steel & Aluminium % COGS ★	Material breakdown	22%	P[4] Lag active	↑ Elev.
Red Sea routing share	Logistics audit	31%	P[3] Rerouted	↑↑ Crit.
Live Signal Environment · April 2026
Brent Crude	ICE · Live	$101.82	+55% vs closure	↑↑ Crit.
TTF Natural Gas	TTF · Live	€47/MWh	2.2× baseline	↑ Elev.
Hormuz Day Count	PHM auto-calc	Day 45	Cascade active	Day 56: −11d
ECB Deposit Rate	ECB 17 Apr 2026	2.25%	P[6] Active	Repriced

Standard Model vs PHM Compound

Line-by-line COGS breakdown · P&L impact · Covenant analysis · Highest delta flagged

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PHM compound mechanism

The standard model diagnoses creative underperformance because CPL is rising and channel mix has not changed. It is the only conclusion available to a model that reads channels but does not read the signal environment. PHM reads the transmission path: DXY 99 → EM currency compression → real wage erosion → brand preference shift → CPL rise across all channels simultaneously. The CPL signal is not a media problem — it is a purchasing power problem arriving through the media layer. The correct response is not a creative refresh. It is a rebrief and a Q2 pivot before the scan data confirms the shift.

Line item	Source · Basis	Standard model	PHM compound	Delta
COGS Impact · Full Year
Direct energy COGS	TTF × intensity	+€1.8M	+€3.2M	+€1.4M
Logistics COGS	Rate × volume	+€1.1M	+€4.1M	+€3.0M
Steel input — June arrival ★	BASF 2022 lag model	+€1.2M	+€4.8M	+€3.6M
Compound COGS total	PHM compound model	+4.2%	+9.7%	+5.5pp
P&L Impact
EBITDA full year	P&L model	€22.1M	€13.1M	−€9M
Net debt / EBITDA covenant	Lending agreement	2.4×	2.9×	+0.5×
Forecast confidence	PHM pattern match	84%	91% match	Strong

PHM Compound Model

Compound interaction coefficients · Scenario modelling · Function-specific preparation actions

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The compound interaction

The compound mechanism operates across six markets simultaneously. The DXY at 99 is compressing EM purchasing power in UAE (−18%), South Africa (−24%), and Brazil (−28%). These are not separate market events — they are one compound signal activating across three geographies at once. The retailer pressure from Tesco, Carrefour, and Rewe is the same signal arriving one layer downstream: they are facing the same purchasing power compression in their customer base and passing it up the chain as promotional demands. Compliance with those demands compounds the waste. The preparation window is 6 weeks — before Q2 retailer scan data confirms the structural shift.

Scenario	Signal assumption	COGS impact	EBITDA	Covenant
Three Scenarios · Same Signal Environment
Current trajectory	DXY 99–102	Signal event	€83.1M	6 weeks
Escalation (DXY 105+)	DXY crosses 105	Full compression	€71.4M	3 weeks ⚠
Resolution (DXY sub-96)	DXY corrects	Partial	€91.2M	8 weeks

Outside-In Read

OEM customer base · BMW/Stellantis mandate read · Pass-through analysis · Preparation window

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The outside-in read

Retailers — Tesco, Carrefour, Rewe — are not negotiating. They are responding to the same signal environment one layer downstream from the FMCG brand. Their promotional demands are the purchasing power compression made visible at the shelf. Compliance at this moment, without the signal read, adds €1.41M in avoidable waste to a Q2 that is already running −17M vs standard model. The CMO who has the signal read negotiates. The one who does not complies. The outside-in layer is what makes that negotiation possible — it shows the retailer the same signal data they are responding to and repositions the conversation.

PHM structural diagnosis · Q3 2022 · FMCG sector

PHM diagnosed a structural CPL signal event in Q3 2022 — rising CPL across all channels without channel mix change, driven by EM purchasing power compression following the energy shock. The correct diagnosis redirected €2.1M from a planned creative refresh toward a Q3 promotional pivot. The mechanism was documented with named sources. The outcome is verifiable against the brand’s Q3 2022 performance record.

The Compound Question · UK · FMCG · CMO

As energy, logistics, and steel input costs activate simultaneously from the same signal — and your board deck shows three separate risk flags with a combined independent COGS impact of +4.2% — does your model account for the compound mechanism that produces +9.7%, or will the steel lag arriving in June be the moment your board discovers that EBITDA guidance was €9M too high?

Preparation window 6 weeks · Before Q2 retailer scan data confirms the structural shift Run your compound diagnostic →

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CPL +34%.Not a creative problem.A structural signal event.

The compound read foryour client's signal environment.

CPL +34%.
Not a creative problem.
A structural signal event.

The compound read for
your client's signal environment.