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Compound Signal Intelligence

The signals are visible.
The transmission path rarely is.
PHM maps both.

1 signal 6 functions 1 preparation window

Geopolitical events reach your P&L through a specific path. PHM documents that path — from the observable signal, through the transmission mechanism, to the decision that belongs to your function. Not a summary of what happened. The action, before the window closes.

Hormuz Day 42·ECB 17 April·IMF WEO 14 April
The preparation window is open.

Enter Signal Environment → Map my exposure — 12 min
8 calls published · 4 confirmed · 0 incorrect · View track record →
Sector Exposure Comparison PHM Signal Index
Q3 2021
43.2
Elevated
April 2026
72.7
High · Active
Q3 2021
Now
Energy
Logistics
Chemicals
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Financial Svc
Technology
Q3 2021 preceded the 2022 energy crisis. Full environment →
The signal was readable

Published 14 January 2026.
Brent was at $71.

The question PHM raised in January 2026

"Is your energy cost exposure structurally vulnerable to a Strait of Hormuz closure — and what does your procurement window look like if it activates?"

On 28 February 2026, US and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury. By 4 March, Iran had declared the Strait closed. Brent broke $100 within days. The preparation window PHM had documented closed in hours.

Organisations inside the window had pre-committed responses. Those outside made the same decisions at 3–8× the cost, under pressure, without the historical pattern context.

View all 8 calls and outcomes →
8
Calls Published
Pre-Activation
0
Incorrect
Calls
4
Confirmed
Outcomes
41
Independent
Research Sources
The signal chain — January 2026
US maximum pressure campaign against Iran → NSPM-2 active
Iran exports at 0.84mb/d → escalation threshold visible
EU storage 30% below 5-year average → no buffer for disruption
Hormuz closure · 28 February 2026 · Brent +42% in 3 weeks
The transmission path

One signal.
Four functions. Four different decisions.

Each row follows one observable event to the P&L decision it triggers. The transmission path is documented — not modelled. The CFO, COO, CMO, and CPO each own a different piece of the same signal. All four are here.

Observable Signal
Transmission Mechanism
Your P&L · Decision
Energy · Hormuz
Brent $71 → $101
28 Feb 2026 · Day 42 active
Mechanism
Freight insurance ×5 · Cape rerouting +21 days · Just-in-time buffer exhausted in 3–5 weeks
COO · Supply Chain
Rerouting decision window: 6 weeks. After that, spot rate premium 3–4×.
Gas · TTF Europe
€28 → €54/MWh
QatarEnergy force majeure · active
Mechanism
Energy-intensive COGS exposure · Unhedged exposure at €65/MWh curtailment threshold
CFO · Margin Exposure
EBITDA margin −2.8–4.1pp at $110/bbl threshold. Hedge or model scenario branch now.
Fertiliser · Ras Laffan
33% global supply
through Hormuz
ESCAP confirmed · urea + ammonia
Mechanism
Input price spike compounds energy cost · Q2 forward contracts pricing in scarcity premium
CPO · Procurement
Forward contract window: 5 weeks. Spot premium after that is 2.1–3.4× current.
Inflation · OECD
G20 inflation +1.2pp
to 4.0% · 2026
OECD Interim Mar 2026 · confirmed
Mechanism
Discretionary spend compression · B2B pipeline softening · Q3 forecast revision already visible
CMO · Demand Signal
Reprice Q3 pipeline. Euro area revised to 0.8% growth. Volume assumptions need stress test.
Sources: IEA, OECD, ESCAP, ECB, Rabobank — 41 independent research sources indexed Full signal environment →
Where to go from here

Two ways in.
Same output — your specific decision window, before it closes.

The full picture

Signal Environment

16 sectors. Six active signals. Transmission maps showing exactly where each one reaches your P&L — with the historical pattern it matched and the decision window attached to it.

Start here to understand the compound before narrowing to your sector.

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Your specific exposure

Diagnostic Tool

Paste your company URL. PHM reads what you do, where you operate, and maps the active signals to your P&L. CFO, COO, CMO, CPO — each gets the decision that belongs to them, not a sector overview.

12 minutes. No account needed for the first read.

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The full transmission path.
The preparation window — before it closes.

Full Signal Environment, weekly Signal Watch entries, and unlimited Diagnostic runs. Every entry includes the transmission path, the decision window, and the response — not a summary of what happened.

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Signal
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The diagnostic maps your organisation's exposure to this signal against 312 documented historical patterns.

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Signal environment: 9 April 2026