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Compound Signal Intelligence

Your team sees the signals.
Nobody connects them.
PHM does that work.

1 signal 6 functions 1 preparation window

PHM holds signals across all six functions simultaneously and asks the compound question your organisation hasn't had time to ask.

Delivered before the preparation window closes.

Six signals active simultaneously.
The preparation window is open.

Enter Signal Environment → Map my exposure — 12 min
8 calls published · 4 confirmed · 0 incorrect · View track record →
Sector Exposure Comparison PHM Signal Index
Q3 2021
43.2
Elevated
April 2026
72.7
High · Active
Q3 2021
Now
Energy
Logistics
Chemicals
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Financial Svc
Technology
Q3 2021 preceded the 2022 energy crisis. Full environment →
The signal was readable

Published 14 January 2026.
Brent was at $71.

The question PHM raised in January 2026

"Is your energy cost exposure structurally vulnerable to a Strait of Hormuz closure — and what does your procurement window look like if it activates?"

On 28 February 2026, US and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury. By 4 March, Iran had declared the Strait closed. Brent broke $100 within days. The preparation window PHM had documented closed in hours.

Organisations inside the window had pre-committed responses. Those outside made the same decisions at 3–8× the cost, under pressure, without the historical pattern context.

View all 8 calls and outcomes →
8
Calls Published
Pre-Activation
0
Incorrect
Calls
4
Confirmed
Outcomes
41
Independent
Research Sources
The signal chain — January 2026
US maximum pressure campaign against Iran → NSPM-2 active
Iran exports at 0.84mb/d → escalation threshold visible
EU storage 30% below 5-year average → no buffer for disruption
Hormuz closure · 28 February 2026 · Brent +42% in 3 weeks
The transmission path

From observable signal
to your P&L — the path is documented.

Each row is a complete signal chain. The mechanism is not analysis — it is the documented historical path from the signal to its financial outcome. Four functions. Four decisions. One signal environment.

Observable Signal
Transmission Mechanism
Your P&L · Decision
Energy · Hormuz
Brent $71 → $101
28 Feb 2026 · Day 40 active
Mechanism
Freight insurance ×5 · Cape rerouting +21 days · Just-in-time buffer exhausted in 3–5 weeks
COO · Supply Chain
Rerouting decision window: 6 weeks. After that, spot rate premium 3–4×.
Gas · TTF Europe
€28 → €54/MWh
QatarEnergy force majeure · active
Mechanism
Energy-intensive COGS exposure · Unhedged exposure at €65/MWh curtailment threshold
CFO · Margin Exposure
EBITDA margin −2.8–4.1pp at $110/bbl threshold. Hedge or model scenario branch now.
Fertiliser · Ras Laffan
33% global supply
through Hormuz
ESCAP confirmed · urea + ammonia
Mechanism
Input price spike compounds energy cost · Q2 forward contracts pricing in scarcity premium
CPO · Procurement
Forward contract window: 5 weeks. Spot premium after that is 2.1–3.4× current.
Inflation · OECD
G20 inflation +1.2pp
to 4.0% · 2026
OECD Interim Mar 2026 · confirmed
Mechanism
Discretionary spend compression · B2B pipeline softening · Q3 forecast revision already visible
CMO · Demand Signal
Reprice Q3 pipeline. Euro area revised to 0.8% growth. Volume assumptions need stress test.
Sources: IEA, OECD, ESCAP, ECB, Rabobank — 41 independent research sources indexed Full signal environment →
Where to go from here

Two ways in.
Both route to the same decision clarity.

The full picture

Signal Environment

The live intelligence centre. Sixteen sectors, six active signals, transmission maps showing exactly where each signal reaches your P&L. Scenarios, historical patterns, and decision windows — updated in real time.

Start here if you want to understand the full signal environment before narrowing to your sector.

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Your specific exposure

Diagnostic Tool

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The full transmission path.
The decision window that closes.

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Signal environment: 9 April 2026