PHM publishes every signal identification, decision window call and scenario assessment — with the date it was made and the date the outcome was confirmed. No retrospective framing. No survivorship bias.
Maturity update · 7 May 2026 — the Hormuz cascade transitioned from active confirmation to early aftermath / MOU phase on 6 May 2026 (Trump halted Project Freedom; one-page MOU sent via Pakistani mediators; Brent retraced 7.8%, TTF 6.76%, DXY back to pre-war levels). Confirmed calls below stand at the altitude they were made — see observation entry at top of active list for the maturity transition itself.
PHM identified Day 28 as the cascade threshold — the point at which disruption stops compounding linearly. Published 3 days before the threshold date. Confirmed: port backlogs activated, spot container rates +150%, Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd surcharges of $1,500–$3,500/container.
PHM framed the situation as a controlled access regime — not a total closure — when most commentary called it a blockade. Pakistan corridor: ~20 vessels/day under yuan-denominated tolls, Western-flagged vessels excluded. Confirmed by IRGC corridor usage data.
PHM identified helium production concentration in Qatar (30% global supply through Hormuz) as a second cascade chain beyond the primary energy/logistics signal. Confirmed by TSMC, Samsung, and Intel supplier advisories.
PHM did not predict whether the ECB would hike, hold, or cut. PHM surfaced the gap: 1 of 37 indexed forecasters (Rabobank, 27 March) called a hike to 2.25%; 36 called hold-or-cut; 3M Euribor was already pricing 2.40%; markets had repriced for tightening while most CFO financial plans were running on a cutting-cycle assumption. The Q1 2022 historical pattern match (supply shock, ECB language "monitoring", outlier hike call against consensus, yield curve repriced ahead of institution) was the documented configuration.
Resolved 30 April: ECB held at 2.00% for the third consecutive meeting. Rabobank's outlier hike scenario did not materialise — but the broader signal-environment thesis held. Lagarde confirmed the hold decision was unanimous though policymakers "debated various options, including a possible hike." The duration audits, Euribor scenario reruns at 2.40%, and EM currency exposure mapping that PHM flagged as the preparation-window discipline were the right work either way.
Trump halted Project Freedom (US naval escort), one-page MOU sent to Tehran via Pakistani mediators, Iran navy confirmed safe-passage commitment. Brent retraced 7.8% in one session ($116.55 → $116.73). TTF -6.76% on the day, -17.83% over 30 days. DXY back to pre-war level (97.9). ECB held at 2.00% on 30 April. Observation, not prediction: the compound moved into late confirmation / early aftermath maturity. The CXO question shifted from "how do I prepare for cascade" (P1 emergence) to "what reverses on resolution and what doesn't" (P2-P4 aftermath). Recovery runs on contract calendars, not the day a deal closes — per [[customer-cascade]] non-reversal principle.
TTF crossed €45 — Yara's documented curtailment threshold. European ammonia production at −35%. Fertiliser procurement decisions made after October 2026 will face spot prices. Window: open now, closes Q4 2026.
G20 inflation revised to 4.0%. The transmission path to consumer demand compression is 8–12 weeks. Q3 demand forecasts built on the pre-revision baseline will miss. Q2 reforecast window open.
IMF cut global growth −0.5pp, −0.8pp for advanced economies. Q3 forecasts not yet rebaselined face a known, documented gap. Window to reforecast before board submission: closing.
415 CEOs surveyed before the blockade. The signal environment they were asked about no longer exists. Boards relying on PwC/EY CEO surveys for Q2 outlook decisions are operating on pre-crisis confidence readings.