Not a forecast. The mechanism behind it.
PHM Method · Apply it to your business

The compound is invisible until you map it.

When Hormuz traffic halves, you don't get a compound-impact memo. You get six alerts across six inboxes — procurement, finance, supply chain, marketing — and by the time your team reconstructs what it means for the P&L, it's already next quarter. The Rationale Workbook is 90 minutes with your leadership team that closes the gap.

Free90 min · Self-run · PDF
PHM Rationale Workbook · Q2 2026
8 spreads · Print or work on screen · No login required
Download →
Or preview a sample spread first
Run by leadership teams in
Food & Beverage Specialty Chemicals AI Infrastructure Industrial Capital
"We'd tracked the signals for a year. It took 90 minutes to see they were the same signal." CFO · Specialty Chemicals, EU
01 · Four ways to engage

Start where it fits your thinking.

Each rung lands a different kind of value. Nothing commits you to the next — but the artefacts you produce on one level become the intake for the next.

01Try

Use our charts in your work

Drop any sector waterfall into your board pack, offsite, or investor update. PHM stays credited as source.

FreeNo commitment
Charts →
02Learn

Run the Rationale Workbook

90 minutes with your leadership team against your own P&L. Self-run, no PHM involvement.

Free8-spread PDF
Download →
04Scope

Apply PHM to a specific question

M&A, regional expansion, capex prioritisation, or ongoing quarterly intelligence for your sector.

CustomFrom €15K · Proposal in 48h
Discuss scope →
02 · What the workbook does

Your team sees the signals. Nobody connects them.

Energy prices, freight indices, tariff schedules, FX moves, export controls, demand curves. Each one sits with a different function. Procurement watches feedstock. Finance watches rates. Supply chain watches shipping. Marketing watches demand. The signals are visible in their respective dashboards. The compound — what they add up to for your specific P&L — is not.

The Rationale Workbook closes that gap. Across four structured exercises with your leadership team, you map your signal environment, diagnose your organisation's response, surface your execution decisions, and identify what comes next. Four outputs your business doesn't have today, in roughly 90 minutes.

03 · The 4 Ps

Four decisions every business makes every quarter.

The PHM framework lives in four decisions. Three of them you can self-diagnose with the workbook. The fourth requires scoped external work — because sequencing depends on particulars templates can't reach.

P1
Predictive
What's coming at you.
Signals landing on your lines — cost transmission, demand transmission, regulatory transmission.
Self-run · Spread 3
P2
Psychology
How you'll actually react.
Where signals route into action inside your organisation, where they stall, and how customers respond.
Self-run · Spread 4
P3
Product / Platform
What you'll build or refuse.
Build, refuse, reprice, or restructure as signals move. The execution layer.
Self-run · Spread 5
P4
Priorities
What to fund, defer, cut — and in what order.
The compound trade-off across signal, organisation, execution — sequenced against your capital constraints and board calendar.
Scoped work · €999 engagement

Why P4 can't be templated

P1 reads what's outside your business. P2 reads how your organisation responds. P3 names the execution decisions. These three have stable patterns — structured exercises can map them. P4 is different. Sequencing your specific decisions — given your specific signal environment, organisational response, execution options, capital constraints, and board calendar — requires translation work depending on particulars. Generic frameworks can't do this.

04 · Inside the workbook

Eight spreads. Four outputs.

A working document. Your team writes in it, runs the exercises, produces outputs. Not a maturity assessment. Not a course. Not a template. Structured scaffolding for a conversation your leadership team needs to have anyway.

1–2
Opening & the 4 Ps
How to use the workbook, the outputs you'll produce, and the framework organising the exercises.
10 min
3
P1 · Map your signal environment
Calibrate against sector aggregate. Where you're more exposed, where insulated, which signals matter most.
15 min
4
P2 · Diagnose organisational response
Where signals route cleanly and where they stall. Plus customer response — substitute, absorb, defer, restructure.
25 min
5
P3 · Surface execution decisions
Name the build, refuse, reprice, restructure decisions in front of your team. Connect each to a signal; mark the timing window.
25 min
6–7
P4 framing & synthesis
What P4 requires, why it can't be self-run, and a synthesis of the four outputs your team has produced.
15 min
8
The path forward
If you need P4 sequenced, your workbook outputs become the intake for the €999 engagement.
05 · From workbook to bespoke case

Your completed workbook becomes the intake.

When you engage the €999 case, you're not starting fresh. You're handing us the work your team has already done so we can build sequenced action on top of it.

1
Day 0
You send the workbook
Scan, photograph, or transcribe. Email to signal@predictivehistorymethod.com. Format doesn't matter.
2
Within 48h
Intake clarification
You receive 6–10 specific follow-ups targeting where the sequencing work needs more depth.
3
Async
You answer back
No scheduling. Most teams complete in one session. Grounds the case in your operating context.
4
5–10 days
Bespoke case delivered
Sequenced action document the CFO takes to the board. Plus 90-day refresh + one follow-up review.

Begin with the workbook. Engage when ready.

The workbook is free. Run it with your team this week. The outputs have value standalone — and become the intake whenever you're ready.

For teams that want to scope before engaging, request a 30-minute conversation at predictivehistorymethod.com/engage.

Download workbook →
€999
Single engagement. Bespoke business case built from your workbook intake.
  • Sequenced action document for the board
  • 90-day signal-environment refresh
  • One follow-up review session with your team
Begin the engagement →
Predictive History Method

Compound signal intelligence
for the C-suite.

PHM reads observable geopolitical signals against documented historical precedent to assemble the compound exposure your organisation's structure prevents internal teams from assembling themselves.

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