When Hormuz traffic halves, you don't get a compound-impact memo. You get six alerts across six inboxes — procurement, finance, supply chain, marketing — and by the time your team reconstructs what it means for the P&L, it's already next quarter. The Rationale Workbook is 90 minutes with your leadership team that closes the gap.
Each rung lands a different kind of value. Nothing commits you to the next — but the artefacts you produce on one level become the intake for the next.
Drop any sector waterfall into your board pack, offsite, or investor update. PHM stays credited as source.
90 minutes with your leadership team against your own P&L. Self-run, no PHM involvement.
Bespoke business case built from your completed workbook. 90-day refresh + one follow-up review.
M&A, regional expansion, capex prioritisation, or ongoing quarterly intelligence for your sector.
Energy prices, freight indices, tariff schedules, FX moves, export controls, demand curves. Each one sits with a different function. Procurement watches feedstock. Finance watches rates. Supply chain watches shipping. Marketing watches demand. The signals are visible in their respective dashboards. The compound — what they add up to for your specific P&L — is not.
The Rationale Workbook closes that gap. Across four structured exercises with your leadership team, you map your signal environment, diagnose your organisation's response, surface your execution decisions, and identify what comes next. Four outputs your business doesn't have today, in roughly 90 minutes.
The PHM framework lives in four decisions. Three of them you can self-diagnose with the workbook. The fourth requires scoped external work — because sequencing depends on particulars templates can't reach.
P1 reads what's outside your business. P2 reads how your organisation responds. P3 names the execution decisions. These three have stable patterns — structured exercises can map them. P4 is different. Sequencing your specific decisions — given your specific signal environment, organisational response, execution options, capital constraints, and board calendar — requires translation work depending on particulars. Generic frameworks can't do this.
A working document. Your team writes in it, runs the exercises, produces outputs. Not a maturity assessment. Not a course. Not a template. Structured scaffolding for a conversation your leadership team needs to have anyway.
When you engage the €999 case, you're not starting fresh. You're handing us the work your team has already done so we can build sequenced action on top of it.
The workbook is free. Run it with your team this week. The outputs have value standalone — and become the intake whenever you're ready.
For teams that want to scope before engaging, request a 30-minute conversation at predictivehistorymethod.com/engage.
Download workbook →PHM reads observable geopolitical signals against documented historical precedent to assemble the compound exposure your organisation's structure prevents internal teams from assembling themselves.
A bookmark now is a favour to your desktop self.