PHM translates observable macro signals into sector-specific P&L impacts and decision windows. Confidence scoring reflects historical pattern match — not probability of future events. The method is documented. The record is public.
8 calls published · 4 confirmed · 0 incorrect. Founded by Sang Heeringa — operator background at Dell, Epsilon, OYO Digital, and Citibank. Kyiv 2022, two months before the invasion.
A briefing that tells you the Strait of Hormuz is tense is not a decision. It does not tell your CFO what to do about COGS. It does not tell your CMO what it means for demand. It does not tell your COO which inventory position to unwind this week versus next quarter.
PHM documents the path — from the observable signal, through the transmission mechanism, to the decision that belongs to your function. Sourced. Timed. Actionable.
CPL up 34% across every channel simultaneously. Diagnosis: creative fatigue. Recommendation: €1.41M creative refresh. The creative launches. CPL continues rising. The signal environment was the cause.
The Hormuz blockade has compressed consumer discretionary demand across your top three markets. Preparation window: 6 weeks. Pre-committed response: channel reallocation — not a creative brief.
Every PHM call is traceable back to its sources, its transmission logic, and its historical precedents. The four-step method is the same on every entry in the archive.
Six structural signal dimensions monitored across 16 sectors and 6 regions. Every signal has named sources, quantified thresholds, and documented transmission paths from previous events.
Every signal has a documented route to P&L. Energy → COGS exposure. Dollar index → EM revenue. Rate cycle → capex window. Each path is quantified against sector-specific historical precedents.
Between the observable signal and the P&L impact there is a window. PHM maps its opening date, its closing condition, and the cost differential between acting inside versus after.
The same signal means different things to a CFO and a CMO. PHM routes the compound read — the specific decision, the specific window, the pre-committed response — to the function that owns it.
Most organisations monitor each of these forces independently. Geopolitics sits with a risk function. Macro sits with Treasury. Market structure sits with Strategy. The compound — where they meet inside your specific P&L — is the space nobody owns.
Sanctions architecture, conflict zones, trade policy, currency pressure, military posture — producing measurable variance in commodity pricing, supply chain routing, and currency markets.
Central bank decisions, inflation dynamics, credit conditions, demand cycles — determining the operating environment in which geopolitical exposure converts to P&L impact.
Sector-specific supply chain topology, competitive dynamics, buyer behaviour — determining how fast the macro signal reaches your cost structure and revenue line.
PHM is not a research-house spin-out. It was built from the operator seat — from the pattern of sitting in rooms where the numbers went off mid-quarter and nobody had an instrument to see the cause.
Senior operational roles at Dell, Epsilon, OYO Digital, and Citibank engagements — including Kyiv, 2022, two months before the invasion. Managing nine-figure annual Martech and agency budgets across those roles produced one recurring observation: mid-quarter, the numbers would go off, and nobody in the room had an instrument to see the cause.
Proven across banking and agriculture — connecting COGS, media budgets, brand spend, and operations as one customer decision, working through recovery and impact recognition using applied causal logic. Combined with over 30 years of experience in business transformation, business intelligence, and business performance management, these are the foundational elements of Predictive History Method.
The diagnostic is three minutes. It maps the current signal environment to your sector, function, and preparation window — and returns the compound read as a structured output. No login. No sales call. Free.
For teams that want to go further: the Rationale Workbook walks your leadership through the 4 Ps in 90 minutes, and produces four artefacts your business uses immediately.