"A CFO doesn't need to know the Strait of Hormuz is important. They need to know where a closure reaches their COGS line, what the threshold is, and what the preparation window looks like before it activates."
— Sang Heeringa, Founder
Most organisations monitor each force independently. PHM reads the compound pattern — where all three activate simultaneously — documented in every major disruption since 1973.
The structural forces — sanctions architecture, conflict zones, trade policy, currency pressure, and military posture — that establish the risk environment. Tracked as observable signals, not analyst opinion.
The macro transmission layer — commodity cycles, currency dynamics, inflation regimes, and central bank positioning — that converts geopolitical signals into financial pressure.
The operational exposure layer — chokepoints, routing dependencies, supplier concentration, input substitutability — that determines how quickly and severely geopolitical events reach your operations.
PHM monitors six structural signal dimensions across 16 sectors and 6 regions. Each signal has named sources, quantified thresholds, and a documented history of transmission paths in previous events.
Every signal has a documented route to your P&L. Energy → COGS exposure. Dollar cycle → EM currency risk. Sanctions architecture → supply chain input availability. The path is mapped before the event confirms it.
Historical pattern match gives you the typical lead time between observable signal and confirmed impact. That gap is the preparation window. PHM makes it explicit — with a deadline, not a range.
COO: supply chain window. CFO: margin exposure and hedging threshold. CMO: demand signal and pricing trigger. CPO: procurement window. Each C-suite function gets the specific decisions that belong to them.
"The signal was observable seven weeks before the event confirmed it. PHM subscribers had the preparation window. Those outside it made the same decisions at 3–8× the cost."
"The 2022 energy crisis was not a surprise. European storage had been below the 5-year average since June 2021. The transmission path was documented. The preparation window was six months."
PHM confidence percentages reflect historical pattern match frequency — how often this specific signal configuration preceded the stated outcome in documented history. They do not represent forecast probability. A 91% match means this configuration preceded this outcome in 91% of documented historical cases. Not a 91% chance it happens.
Every PHM call is published before the event confirms it — with the observable signal, the transmission path, the historical pattern match, and the preparation window. The record is public.
Senior operational roles at Dell, Epsilon, and OYO Digital — including Kyiv, 2022, two months before the invasion. That experience — watching the signal environment shift in real time while executives in Amsterdam and New York were still reading "elevated tensions" — is what PHM was built to fix.
The method formalises what experienced operators know intuitively: geopolitical events follow documented paths. The patterns were readable before the data confirmed them. They still are.
PHM is built from Ukraine, operated globally, and read by executives in sectors where geopolitical signal mistranslation is measured in eight figures.
PHM publishes across three formats — live intelligence, weekly briefings, and a structured framework — each calibrated to a different decision cadence.
The live intelligence centre. 16 sectors, six active signals, transmission maps, historical patterns, and decision windows — updated in real time. The flagship PHM product.
Enter →Event-driven briefings published when the signal environment moves. Each entry: one sector, one function, one decision. Calibrated to CFO, COO, CMO, and CPO decision cadences.
Read →The PHM methodology in full — signal reading, transmission mapping, and decision window calculation — structured as an operational reference for executive teams.
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