Every geopolitical event eventually becomes personal. It just takes time — and nobody shows you the route. Hormuz has been closed for 136 days. A peace deal signed. Collapsed three weeks later. The cascading impact running forward regardless. Here is where it lands. All the way down. To your wallet.
Bloomberg tells you Brent is $78.82 (13 July 2026 close, September futures). The FT tells you shipping costs are up again. The ECB raised rates by 25bp on 11 June — first hike since 2023. Every source stops at level two or three — the macro effect — and leaves you to figure out what it means for your situation.
A peace deal signed on 17 June. Markets priced recovery. Brent retraced toward pre-war levels. Three weeks later the deal collapsed: IRGC struck three tankers 7 July, Trump declared it over at the NATO summit in Turkey 8 July, 300+ US strike targets across three rounds by 12 July. The transmission chains below were running through the MoU window and kept running after it. Nobody shows you that. Nobody shows you where the cascading impact lands regardless of what the headlines say next.
PHM traces the chain. All the way down. Ten economic pillars. Thirty levels deep. Every branch traced to its endpoint — your wallet, your business, your household, your institution. The mechanism documented at every step so you can verify it yourself.
Every chain shown simultaneously. Hormuz at the centre. Click any node to trace its path — from the event through every institutional layer to your wallet. Ten pillars. Thirty levels. One map.
The obvious chain. But it doesn't stop at the petrol station. It runs through every institution, every household, every business that uses power — at different speeds.
Two food chains running simultaneously at different speeds. The first hits your basket in weeks. The second is forming a supply crisis for 2027 that almost nobody is watching.
Not just cost. Availability. The logistics pillar is the infrastructure through which every other pillar moves. When it strains, everything else compounds.
The ECB is managing the first wave. The second, third, fourth, and fifth haven't arrived in CPI yet. The central bank doesn't know what it doesn't know.
Nobody connects healthcare to geopolitics. The transmission path runs through both logistics and energy simultaneously — and it lands in waiting rooms and empty pharmacy shelves.
The rate cut you expected. The construction costs that keep rising. The housing affordability that keeps worsening. Part of all of this is a Hormuz compound.
Employment is the most lagged indicator in the chain. The energy threshold crossed six weeks ago. The curtailment decisions are happening now. The employment effect arrives in 8–12 weeks.
Institutional capital is reweighting. Every capital allocation made before 28 February is running on incorrect assumptions. The preparation window for the compound opportunity is open now.
The consumer pillar is where every other pillar converges. It is the endpoint of all ten chains. Everything eventually arrives here.
The second-order effects that persist beyond resolution. When countries and companies make strategic decisions during a disruption, they rarely undo them when it ends.
Lufthansa cancelling routes for later in the year. United raising ticket prices. The aviation chain is one of the most direct Hormuz transmission paths — and one of the stickiest. Once airline pricing and capacity decisions are made, they don't reverse when the event resolves.
Every chain — no matter how long, no matter how many institutional layers — ends at the same place. One person. One wallet. One decision about what they can still afford. That is the impact of the impact of the impact of the impact.
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