◐ Absorbed
Macro Event
Industrials & Manufacturing
CFO · Finance
14 April 2026 · review 7 May
The IMF named the configuration. Your Q3 forecast either tracks the new baseline or doesn't.
Global growth 3.1% (2026), 3.2% (2027) — IMF April WEO. Title: Global Economy in the Shadow of War. -0.2pp from January Update. Severe scenario: 5.8% inflation 2026. The forecast is in. Q3 plans built on the January baseline are already 3 weeks behind. The July update will revise on de-escalation but the absorbed inflation persists in CPI.
◐ Absorbed
Board Signal
Cross-Sector
CEO · Strategy
13 April 2026 · review 7 May
The pre-blockade CEO data is now historical. The decisions made during the gap are now baseline.
415 CEOs gave confidence readings into a signal environment that no longer exists. The gap is closing — post-cascade survey rounds will land. But the strategic decisions made during the gap (capex deferrals, hiring freezes, M&A pauses) are already in operating baseline. The MOU phase resolves spot prices. It does not unwind decisions made when the prices were spot.
◐ Absorbed
Macro Event
FMCG & Consumer
CMO · Revenue
9 April 2026 · review 7 May
G20 inflation 4.0% is in the 2026 baseline. The May retracement does not unwind it.
OECD Interim March 2026 — G20 headline 4.0% (2026), 2.7% (2027). Core G20 advanced 2.6% → 2.3%. Title: Testing Resilience. Energy retracement on de-escalation will revise the 2027 path. The 2026 path is already absorbed into prints. Q3 demand forecasts that revise upward on energy retracement still face the absorbed-inflation real-income drag.
◐ Resolved
Rate Decision
Financial Services
CFO · Treasury
8 April 2026 · resolved 30 Apr
ECB held at 2.00% on 30 April. The hike thesis did not materialise. The absorbed inflation did.
Deposit Facility 2.00% · MRO 2.15% · Marginal Lending 2.40% — all unchanged 30 April 2026. Rabobank's outlier hike call (1 of 37 forecasters) did not land. But the cascade-driven inflation already absorbed into 2026 prints (G20 4.0% per OECD) sits inside the rate-hold rather than reverses through it. Floating-rate liabilities priced for a hike now reset against a held-rate baseline that still carries the higher CPI absorption.
◐ Absorbed
Supply Shock
Agriculture
CPO · Supply Chain
2 April 2026 · review 7 May
TTF retraced to €44. The fertiliser contracts signed at the cascade peak did not.
Yara curtailed 35% of European ammonia production at TTF €45+. TTF closed €43.75 on 6 May (-17.8% over 30 days). Ammonia spread compresses on the retracement. But 2026 fertiliser contracts already signed at cascade-pricing, and 2027 planting decisions already made under cascade visibility. The spread reverses. The contract baseline doesn't.
◐ Absorbed
Structural Shift
Technology
CPO · Procurement
2 April 2026 · review 7 May
IEEPA tariffs ruled out. Section 122 partial replacement. The structural shift is now baseline.
US Supreme Court ruled out IEEPA tariffs; Section 122 replaced part of the rate. Net effective tariff lower than feared, but the supply chain repositioning of 2024–25 is already absorbed. China growth revised to 4.4% (IMF April), modest 0.1pp downgrade — far less than the cascade-extreme scenarios suggested. Trade-pattern adjustments made during the tariff peak are persistent. The window for "wait and see" closed during the peak, not now.
◐ Resolved
Hedge Cliff
Energy & Utilities
CFO · Risk
1 April 2026 · review 7 May
The 2022 hedge expired into a cascade peak. Companies that re-entered now sit on €47-baseline books while spot prints €44.
TTF €43.75 close 6 May, down 17.8% over 30 days from cascade peaks above €47. The hedge cliff resolved at the wrong end of the cycle: re-entries between Day 30 and Day 60 of the cascade locked structures at peak prices. Spot retraces. The hedge book structures don't. Refinancing or restructuring those positions is now P3 — build, refuse, reprice.
● Anticipatory · Day 0
Cross-Compound Configuration
Semiconductors · Banking · Energy · Defence · Sovereign
CIO · CRO · Strategy
15 May 2026 · called out the day Xi-Trump summit closed
Three named compounds. One configuration. PHM called this out anticipatorily — the day the Xi-Trump summit closed.
Iran/Hormuz × Russia-Ukraine × Taipei alignment-first protocol composing as one entangled configuration. Xi placed Taiwan at centre of 14 May summit with "fire and water" framing. Three-year stability framework agreed. Putin visits Beijing 20 May — five days after Trump leaves. Five senior analysts at independent institutions (CFR, Hoover, Georgetown, Brookings, Asia Times) compose the same window-of-opportunity reading from different angles within 72 hours. The world no longer runs on independent events. Three compounds in the same diagnostic window are not coincidence.
◐ MOU phase
Maturity Stage
Logistics & Supply Chain
COO · Operations
29 March 2026 · upd. 7 May
Day 86 (as of 25 May 2026). Trump halted Project Freedom on 6 May (then Day ~67). Iran navy confirms safe passage will be ensured. The strait reopens on contract calendars, not the deal closing.
Hormuz Day ~67 (7 May issue). Cape route premium had accumulated +$2,700/container at peak (MSC/Hapag-Lloyd April surcharges). War risk insurance peaked +350%. Spot oil retraced to $101 on the MOU report. Recovery for shipping flows: weeks minimum even on a deal close. Organisations that acted before Day 28 face 3× lower execution cost than those still re-routing today. The 7 May question was not "when does the strait reopen" — it was "which contract structures established during the cascade do I unwind, refuse, or reprice." 25 May update: Brent bounced back to $116.73; US-Iran agreement in principle reached 24 May per NYT — the question is still the contract reset, not the deal-close.