MoU signed 17 June. Brent retraced toward pre-war levels. Three weeks later: IRGC struck three tankers 7 July. The toll booth did not pause for the deal. IRGC route enforcement against vessels off the Iran-approved corridor continued through the MoU window. The strait never returned to pre-crisis transit volumes — 34 vessels/day on 5 July vs 88/day baseline. Path 3 activated 8 July. The cascade that began on 28 February has now run through a full interlude-and-collapse arc. Your freight model, your fuel hedge, your war risk cover written for the closure don't unwind on the deal. They reset on their own renewal cycles — and the second layer of commitments made during the MoU window are now re-pricing too.
The Strait of Hormuz closed on 28 February. Original issue dated 7 May 2026 (then Day ~67); updated 25 May 2026 (Day 86); updated 14 July 2026 (Day 136). The TIDES model identified Day 28 as the cascade threshold — confirmed in late-March data, matured through Q2. What reverses on a deal close: spot freight rates, war risk insurance pricing, Cape rerouting time, fuel forwards. What does not reverse: contract baselines repriced during the cascade, hedge book structures, capex commitments already made, customer pricing already passed through.
Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM ran $1,500–$3,500 per container emergency surcharges through April. Iran's corridor ran at least 26 formal corridor transits at $2M per vessel since 13 March — Western-flagged operators excluded throughout. The booth did not close for the deal. The 17 June MoU said the strait would reopen; the Iran Persian Gulf Strait Authority continued asserting corridor-authority and differential-pricing signalling through the MoU window.
14 July 2026 update (Day 136): The Islamabad Memorandum signed 17 June produced three weeks of Path 1 operating conditions — partial traffic recovery, Brent retracement toward pre-war levels, LNG carriers massing at Ras Laffan. The governance-of-transit fault line the MoU did not address (IRGC corridor authority, differential-pricing assertion, safe-passage-conditional-on-approved-route) escalated inside the interlude rather than pausing during it. IRGC struck three tankers 7 July (Qatari LNG tanker Al-Rekayyat, Saudi crude tanker, third tanker by unidentified projectile). Trump declared the MoU over 8 July at the NATO Turkey summit. 300+ US strike targets across three rounds 7-12 July. IRGC struck Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy 12 July — engine-room fire, first non-tanker category. Iran declared strait closed "until further notice" 12 July; US CENTCOM disputed the closure. Current: 34 transits/day (5 July, IMF PortWatch) vs 88/day pre-crisis baseline; no vessel above 10,000 dwt on US-coordinated Southern Highway with AIS on since 7 July per Lloyd's List Intelligence; 503 vessels stranded. The Turkish Straits historical parallel this entry named at Day 67 — toll-collection regime persisting a century after the underlying crisis ended — has empirical grounding in the July corridor-authority enforcement. The IRGC registered corridor, the differential-pricing claim, and the safe-passage-conditional-on-route assertion all operate independently of the MoU's legal status. The structure that emerged from the cascade is not temporary infrastructure. It is the new operating regime.
Helium / semiconductor: Qatar supplies 30% of global helium as an LNG byproduct. QatarEnergy force majeure on 2 March. Ras Laffan damaged. Spot helium prices up 70–100%. Approximately 200 helium containers stranded in Qatar — each holds 35–48 days of supply before venting. Semiconductor fabs in Korea, Japan, Taiwan are the largest helium consumers. Minimum 3-month supply disruption confirmed even in a ceasefire scenario.
Pharmaceutical / generic drug API: China produces 40–60% of global active pharmaceutical ingredients. India supplies a further share but is itself 70–80% dependent on Chinese precursors — the India alternative is a one-step buffer on the same dependency. The Hormuz disruption compounds this through cold-chain logistics disruption and freight compression. Generic drugs, antibiotics, cancer treatments carry the highest exposure. Buffer stocks in generic pharma are typically narrow.
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