Trump halted Project Freedom on 6 May. One-page MOU sent to Tehran via Pakistani mediators. Iran navy: "safe, stable passage will be ensured." Brent retraced $116 → $101 in a single session (-7.8%). The strait reopens — when it reopens — on contract calendars, not the day a deal closes. Your freight model, your fuel hedge, your war risk cover written for the closure don't unwind on the deal. They reset on their own renewal cycles.
The Strait of Hormuz closed on 28 February. Issue dated 7 May 2026 (then Day ~67); now Day 86 (25 May 2026). The TIDES model identified Day 28 as the threshold where network cascade begins compounding non-linearly — confirmed in late-March data, now matured into early aftermath. What reverses on a deal close: spot freight rates, war risk insurance pricing, Cape rerouting time, fuel forwards. What does not reverse: contract baselines repriced during the cascade, hedge book structures established at $116 oil, Q3 capex commitments already made, customer pricing already passed through.
Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM ran $1,500–$3,500 per container emergency surcharges through April. Iran ran at least 33 formal corridor transits at $2M per vessel — Western-flagged operators excluded. The reopening — when it reopens — runs on contract calendars: 23,000 seafarers stranded, weeks minimum to normalise shipping flows even after the MOU closes. The booth was the question through Day 60. The 7 May question is which contract structures established during the cascade you unwind, refuse, or reprice.
25 May update: Brent has bounced back to $116.73 (+62% vs pre-crisis ~$72) after the 6 May retracement; the MOU phase has progressed to a US-Iran agreement in principle reached 24 May per US official cited by NYT, with phased deal under negotiation. The strait remains operationally near-closed (2 vessels transited 17 May vs typical 95/day per IMF PortWatch). The "what reverses vs what persists" framing is, if anything, more relevant — the deal-close is approaching, but the contract resets won't.
Helium / semiconductor: Qatar supplies 30% of global helium as an LNG byproduct. QatarEnergy force majeure on 2 March. Ras Laffan damaged. Spot helium prices up 70–100%. Approximately 200 helium containers stranded in Qatar — each holds 35–48 days of supply before venting. Semiconductor fabs in Korea, Japan, Taiwan are the largest helium consumers. Minimum 3-month supply disruption confirmed even in a ceasefire scenario.
Pharmaceutical / generic drug API: China produces 40–60% of global active pharmaceutical ingredients. India supplies a further share but is itself 70–80% dependent on Chinese precursors — the India alternative is a one-step buffer on the same dependency. The Hormuz disruption compounds this through cold-chain logistics disruption and freight compression. Generic drugs, antibiotics, cancer treatments carry the highest exposure. Buffer stocks in generic pharma are typically narrow.
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