PHM Executive Briefing Centre · Geopolitics to Business Decisions

Hormuz

Day 86

Ceasefire

How this signal reaches
your operating environment.

Built for the C-suite. Select your sector — PHM maps the transmission path to your function: COO, CFO, CMO, CPO, CEO. Exposure, margin, decision window, pre-committed response. Before the window closes.

Energy / COGS

$116.73

Brent · ceasefire

Supply Chain

Closed

Hormuz + Bab

Currency / EM

100.2

DXY stress

Logistics Cost

+1,000%+

War premium

Input Scarcity

Urea +43%

Gulf halted

Inflation / Demand

4.0%

G20 · +1.2pp revision

Live Signal Environment — Hormuz Day 38

● Updating every 5 minutes

Brent Crude Critical

$101.20

↓ from $126 peak · Ceasefire

TTF Gas Critical

€46.63

Hormuz cascade

DXY Dollar

100.2

EM stress active

Lloyd's War Risk Critical

+1,000%+

All Gulf routes

Kharg Island Critical

Active

Deadline passed · threat live

G20 Inflation

4.0%

+1.2pp · OECD Mar 26

PHM Executive Briefing Centre

The full transmission path from signal to P&L — by sector, by function, by preparation window.

The EBC maps how the current signal environment reaches your sector’s cost structure, margin, and decision window — with scenario branches, pre-committed response architecture, and historical parallel. Interactive by design. Built for desktop.

Select your sector. PHM maps the complete transmission path to your function — COO, CFO, CMO, CPO, CEO. Exposure, margin impact, preparation window, pre-committed response.

Open full briefing on desktop →

Select your sector

Click any tile to activate the full transmission analysis — exposure, margin impact, decision window and pre-committed response specific to your sector.

16 sectors · compound P&L impact

Sector Exposure Map — 16 sectors · compound impact

Where does your sector sit in this signal environment?

Tile size = compound P&L impact across 8 signal dimensions. Colour = preparation window status. Click any tile to activate the sector transmission path below.

Window closed

Window closing

Window open

Read your sector deep dive

The full transmission path lights up — exposure, margin impact, pre-committed response, decision window, What If scenarios and Signals to Watch. Specific to your sector.

What takes two weeks of internal alignment
takes 3 min here.

Signal Transmission Map

From geopolitical trigger to your P&L.

1 signal 6 functions 1 preparation window

Select your sector. The full transmission path lights up — showing your exposure, margin impact, and exactly how long your decision window is open.

Select your sector in the chart above — or click directly in the list below

Geopolitical Triggers

Hormuz Closure

Day 86 ↗

Largest energy disruption since 1973

DXY Dollar Pressure

100.2

Approaching 105 EM stress threshold

Tariff Escalation

S.232 Active

Steel +25% · Aluminium +10%

Taiwan Scenario

32% / 24m

Semiconductor buffer at risk

→

Transmission Channels

Energy / COGS

$112

Feedstock cascade — crude, gas, fertiliser input costs

Supply Chain

Closed

Hormuz + Bab al-Mandeb — Cape of Good Hope only

Currency / EM

100.2

DXY pressure — EM purchasing power compressing

Logistics Cost

+1,000%+

Lloyd’s Marine War Risk +1,000%+ (Howden Re) — voyage economics structurally repriced

Input Scarcity

Urea +43%

Gulf smelters halted — aluminium, fertiliser chain

Inflation / Demand

G20 4.0%

+1.2pp conflict revision — demand destruction building · OECD Mar 2026

→

Your Sector

Select your sector in the map above

Transmission path activated

Sector Deep Dive

Quantified exposure · Decision window · Pre-committed response

Exposure

Margin Impact

Timeline

Decision Window

Signal transmission — 8 dimensions · select a sector above

PHM Methodology

Based on PHM’s methodology and diagnostic engine design principles, company exposure to geopolitical events extends beyond the company itself — through the customer base, into the sectors those customers operate in, and into the behaviour changes those customers will make before they communicate them upstream. The full customer portfolio read is available to subscribers.

⚡

Adjacent Risk Amplification

Decision

Pre-committed response

Deadline

Cost of delay

Risk Tolerance Modifier

Execution sequence

What If — Scenario Branches

Signals to Watch

Map this signal to your organisation — 3 min →

Free to scope. The full organisation-specific analysis is where the detail lives.

Terms & abbreviations used on this page →

How this signal reachesyour operating environment.

How this signal reaches
your operating environment.