PHM Signal Index · Updated on material signal events

PHM Signal Index

The PHM Signal Index reads 72.7. In January 2020 it read 12.0. At the peak of the 2022 Ukraine shock it reached 81.0. Right now it is above that entry point and beginning to retrace as the cascade matures. The number measures where the current signal configuration sits against the documented thresholds at which historical disruptions have crossed into cascade. When it moves, something structural has changed. When it approaches a threshold, the preparation window is closing. The compound configuration driving this reading: transitioned on 6 May 2026 from active confirmation to early aftermath when Trump halted Project Freedom and Tehran received a one-page MOU via Pakistani mediators — Brent retraced from $116 to $101 (-7.8%), TTF from €47 to €44, DXY to 97.9 (pre-war level), ECB held at 2.00% on 30 April. Subsequent state as of 25 May 2026 (Day 86): Brent bounced back to $116.73 (+62% vs pre-crisis), TTF at €46.63 (volatile May range €38–€53), DXY ~99.2. US-Iran agreement in principle reached 24 May per US official cited by NYT — phased deal under negotiation; physical reopening pending; British Royal Navy positioned for mine-clearance. Strait remains operationally near-closed: 2 vessels transited 17 May vs typical 95/day per IMF PortWatch. The cascade threshold crossed on 30 March. Margin compression already absorbed across energy, chemicals, agriculture and logistics. The question is no longer "where is the next preparation window" — it's what reverses on resolution and what doesn't. The Diagnostic maps where your organisation sits inside this reading.

Universe: 240 companies · 17 sectors · 6 regions · Signals: 6 active inputs · weighted by documented mechanism strength
Last data review: 25 May 2026 — Hormuz Day 86 · US-Iran agreement in principle · Base: Jan 2020 = 12.0 · Mar 2022 peak = 81.0 · Pre-Hormuz = 44.0

Composite · 240 companies · 17 sectors

0/100

▲ +28.7 since 28 Feb 2026 · Prior: 44.0 · retracing on de-escalation

Cascade matured · agreement in principle — Day 86

US-Iran agreement in principle · 24 May 2026 · Day 86

The Signal Index — what it measures

The aggregate reading. 240 companies, 17 sectors, 6 regions — measured against documented disruption thresholds. When the index crosses a threshold, preparation windows at that sector are closing.

The Compound Impact Index — what it maps

Event-specific. Applies the same methodology to a single activated event — currently the Hormuz closure — and maps its demonstrated economic effects by country, sector, and named company. Go to Impact Index →

The Diagnostic — where you sit

Maps your organisation's position inside the index — by sector, by function. Where the Signal Index shows the aggregate and the Impact Index shows the event, the Diagnostic shows what the current reading means for your COO, your CFO, your CPO specifically. Which preparation windows are still open. preparation windows are. Run it free →

Historical Series

Index history — January 2020 to now

Calibrated against documented activation events. The index at 44 in February 2026 was the pre-Hormuz baseline. It moved 28.7 points in three weeks — the largest single-event move since the March 2022 Ukraine activation.

PHM-SI Historical

Current: 72.7 · Peak (Mar 2022): 81 · Base (Jan 2020): 12

Signal Threshold Record

Brent above $85/bbl — every threshold crossing since 2005 and what followed

Six of six sustained crossings of the $85 threshold preceded documented corporate disruption, curtailment, or EM stress cascade within 12 months. The threshold is PHM's calibrated signal level, anchored against the 2008, 2011, 2014, 2022 case record. Current reading: $116.73 /bbl (25 May 2026).

PHM · Threshold Record · Brent Crude 1990–2026

$85/bbl threshold · 6 of 6 crossings → documented cascade · April 2026

Source: EIA Brent crude spot price historical series · BASF SE Annual Reports · IEA · PHM empirical case analysis

Sector Sub-Indices

Which sectors are most exposed — and why

Each score reflects how the current signal configuration transmits through the documented mechanisms for that sector

Regional Matrix

Where the configuration lands geographically

Based on documented trade flows and mechanism strength by region — not just proximity to the signal source

Signal Components

The six signals — current readings against documented thresholds

The index score is only as credible as the signal readings that compose it. Every reading below is publicly verifiable

Company Universe

240 companies · scored against the current configuration

Filterable by sector and severity. Each score is the company-level reading of how the current signal configuration reaches their specific P&L

Showing 240 of 240 companies

Company	Sector	Regions	Revenue	Primary Signals	Exposure Score	Severity

How the index is calculated — and why it matters

The PHM Signal Index measures what no existing market indicator does: the compound geopolitical signal exposure of a named universe of companies, expressed as a single number updated on material signal events. Existing indicators measure either the signals themselves (Brent, DXY, TTF — market prices) or the outcomes (GDP, PMI, CPI — lagged data). The PHM Signal Index measures the mechanism in between — the documented connection between the current signal state and the P&L exposure of 240 named companies, weighted by the historical patterns that describe how each signal type transmits through each sector and region. The methodology: six signal inputs, each scored 0–100 against documented activation thresholds from the PHM condition lookup (312 patterns). Each company is assigned a sector exposure vector and a regional weight. The composite is the sector-weighted aggregate across all 240 companies.

PHM-SI = Σ (sector_weight × sector_score) · sector_score = Σ (revenue_weight_i × Σ (signal_score_j × exposure_ij)) · signal_score = f(current_reading, threshold, max_documented)

The index is not a prediction. It is a structured reading. A score of 72.7 means five of six tracked signals have exceeded their documented activation thresholds simultaneously — a configuration with no direct precedent in the post-Cold War period. The preparation windows it identifies are measurable. The decisions it prompts are specific. The methodology is public. Every number is verifiable.

Sources: ASCII/Complexity Science Hub Vienna/TU Delft — "When the Strait Closes", March 2026 · Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, March 2026 · IEA · ECB · Lloyd's List Intelligence · JWC Advisories · PHM condition lookup (312 documented historical patterns) · Company revenue data from public filings 2024–25.

Signal Watch · Weekly Analysis

The signal environment behind the index — explained weekly by sector and function.

Week 01: Logistics & Supply Chain × COO — Hormuz cascade threshold. Week 02: Chemicals × CFO — TTF re-exposure. Publishes every Tuesday.

View Signal Watch →

The index is the map.
The diagnostic is your position on it.

The Signal Index score tells you where the aggregate stands. The diagnostic tells you where your organisation stands inside that aggregate — your sector, your regions, your COGS structure, your route exposure, your EM revenue proportion. It identifies which of the active conditions are directly relevant to your P&L and produces a named task matrix with owners and timelines. 3 min free. Full report €999

Run Diagnostic — 3 min → Executive Brief