Not a forecast. The mechanism behind it.
Compound Signal Intelligence

When the same signal hits multiple sectors,
losses multiply rather than add.

Geopolitical signal follows documented transmission paths and arrives with observable lead times. PHM maps the compound — months before it lands on your P&L, and through aftermath when the absorbed cost compounds across contracts, hedges, and planning cycles. The diagnostic shows you where your business sits in the current signal environment in three minutes.

Live 25 May 2026 · Day 86 · cascade matured · US-Iran agreement in principle
Track Record · May 2026
9
Published
4
Confirmed
0
Incorrect
Maturity transition observed
Cascade matured · US-Iran deal in principle · 25 May 2026
View record →
Live signal layer · 25 May 2026 · Day 86 · cascade matured
Brent
$116.73
+2.43% 24h · +62% vs pre-crisis
TTF Gas
€46.63
25 May 2026 · May range €38–€53
DXY
99.2
May range 97–100; March spike to 103+ unwound
Hormuz
Day 86
US-Iran agreement in principle 24 May per NYT
ECB Rate
2.00%
held 30 Apr · hike thesis off
IMF WEO
3.1%
global growth · Apr 2026
01 · The quantification gap

Every board sees it.
Few have sized it.

McKinsey's April 2026 board survey: 62% recognise geopolitical shifts as material enterprise exposure. Only 29% have quantified the impact by function, number, and decision window.

The 33-point gap between knowing it matters and having done the work is exactly where PHM lives. Consulting firms close it in five-figure engagements. PHM closes it in three minutes.

Read the McKinsey analysis ↗
62%
See geopolitical shifts as material
McKinsey · Apr 2026
29%
Have quantified the impact
McKinsey · Apr 2026
33pts
The gap PHM closes — by function, by number, by decision window

What's activating in Q2 2026 is the compound — visible months before it arrives on your P&L. The signals are public. The mapping isn't.

PHM Read Grounded in BIS Quarterly Review · March 2023
02 · The signal was readable

We called it
11 weeks early.

PHM mapped the IMF demand revision on 14 January 2026 — eleven weeks before publication. The compression had already passed through the observable signal layer (freight, energy, EM currency, CEO sentiment) before the official number moved.

Every PHM call traces to a named source, a documented mechanism, and a historical precedent verifiable against the public record.

View full track record →
Confirmed call · 14 Jan 2026
IMF demand revision, mapped 11 weeks before WEO publication
Forecast compression already visible in freight indices, EM currency stress, and CEO sentiment data — months before the institutional number moved.
Lead time: 11 wks Source corpus: 90+ Outcome: ↓ 0.9% (confirmed)
90+ institutional sources indexed
BISECBIMFWEF Dallas FedFRBSFMcKinseyLloyd's
03 · PHM Sector Indexes · Q1 2026

Four sectors. One signal environment.

PHM Index above 100 = beating filed guidance. Below = landing short. Same framework, sector-specific transmission paths.

View full sector analysis →
04 · Preparation window

The window opens.
Then closes.

Between the observable signal and the P&L impact, there is a documented preparation window. Inside it, the cost to act is 2–3×. Outside it, 6–8×. PHM maps the window — by signal, by sector, by function.

Preparation window
6–8 wks
Signal → P&L impact · 2× inside · 6–8× after
Cost to act — by window position
Inside window · Q3 20212.1×
Window closing · Q4 20213–4×
Window closed · Aug 20226–8×
05 · What it looks like for your function

The signal is already in your inputs.

Three live reads from the current signal environment, by function. Same data, different decisions in front of you.

CFO · Finance
Your Q2 forecast runs on IMF numbers from before 14 April.
The IMF revised down 0.5pp. Any downstream model built on pre-revision assumptions is now running on stale inputs.
COO · Operations
Hormuz at Day 86. US-Iran agreement in principle (24 May). The freight contract you locked in March is the new baseline.
TTF retraced 18% over 30 days. Spot reverses on resolution; the contract structures established at peak don't. The repricing window is open at function-specific altitude.
CSO · Strategy
European Chemicals at PHM 79.0 — 21 points below filed guidance.
The compression is in the signal layer, not yet in the consensus. M&A multiples and capex theses built off Q4 numbers are stale.
Your sector · Your exposure

Map your specific exposure window in three minutes.

The diagnostic maps the current signal environment to your company, your function, and your preparation window. No login. No call required.

Run my diagnostic — 3 min →
For leadership teams

Or run the 90-minute Rationale Workbook

FreeAn 8-spread PDF that walks your leadership team through the 4 Ps against your own P&L. Self-run, no PHM involvement required.

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Predictive History Method

When the same signal hits multiple sectors,
losses multiply rather than add.

PHM reads observable geopolitical signals against documented historical precedent to assemble the compound exposure your organisation's structure prevents internal teams from assembling themselves.

Map my exposure — 3 min →
predictivehistorymethod.com · designed for desktop reading